Dr. Theofanis Sapatinas (University of Cyprus and UCSB)

Title: Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Similar Shape Functional Time Series Predictor

Abstract: A novel functional time series methodology for short-term load forecasting is introduced. The prediction is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar to the expected shape of the load segment to be predicted. The past load segments are identified from the available history of the observed load segments by means of their closeness to a so-called reference load segment. The later is selected in a manner that captures the expected qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the load segment to be predicted. Weak consistency of the suggested similar shape functional time series predictor is established. As an illustration, the suggested functional time series forecasting methodology is applied to historical daily load data in Cyprus. Its performance is compared to some recently proposed alternative methodologies for short-term load forecasting.