Seminars
Talks by PStat faculty
 
 

 

Seminars 2006-2007          


Friday, September 29, 2006
Noon - 1:30
Refreshments served at 11:45 AM
South Hall 5607F

Yong Shin Kim, Department of Economics and Business Engineering, University of Karlsruhe

"The Modified Tempered Stable Distribution, GARCH-Models and Option Pricing"

In this talk, we introduce a variant of tempered stable distribution named modified tempered stable (MTS) distribution, and apply it to an option price model based on a GARCH asset return process. The GARCH option price model with the MTS innovation allows the description of some stylized phenomena in empirical observation of financial market such as volatility clustering, skewness and heavy tail of the return distribution. We estimate the model parameters with S&P 500 index data, and use the parameters to calculate the S&P 500 option prices with Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we compare the model prices to the market prices.


Wednesday, October 4, 2006
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM,
Refreshments served at 3:00 PM

Kevin Plaxco, UCSB Chemistry and Biochemistry

"My protein folds faster than yours: using protein folding rates to test protein folding theories."

Proteins, like all machines, are complex, three-dimensional structures in which form intimately defines function. The manufacturing machinery in your cells, however, initially synthesizes proteins as random coil polymers that only then spontaneously, rapidly and efficiently fold into well-defined,, functional structures.Across the universe of simple, single domain proteins, the fastest performs this folding dance a million times more rapidly than the slowest. What accounts for this dramatic range of kinetic behaviors? In this talk I cast an experimentalist's critical eye on recent theories of protein folding kinetics that address this fundamental biophysical issue.


Friday, October 6, 2006, 3-4 pm (sponsored jointly with Mathematics Dept)
South Hall 4607

Liliana Borcea. Computational and Applied Mathematics, Rice University

"Adaptive Coherent Interferometric Imaging in Random Media and Optimal Waveform Design" (work incollaboration with George Papanicolaou (Stanford) and Chrysoula Tsogka (U. Chicago)

I will discuss a robust, coherent interferometric approach for imaging of strong reflectors in cluttered
media. By clutter we mean small inhomogeneities in the medium, as they arise in applications in
Geophysics, foliage penetrating radar, nondestructive evaluation of aging concrete structures, etc. Naturally, the inhomogeneities are not known and they cannot be estimated precisely from the data, so we deal with an uncertainty about the medium which we model as a random process.

Depending on the strength of the inhomogeneities and the distance of propagation, the effect of the clutter on the wave field can be classified as:

1) Weak interaction, in which case there is a lot of coherence in the data and classic imaging (migration)methods work.
2) Significant interaction, in the sense that the traces are ``noisy'' and classic migration becomes
unreliable. There is however some coherence left in the data and the challenge is to be able to extract
it from the noisy traces, with some clever processing.
3) Very strong interaction, in which case all coherence is lost and one can only speak of diffusion type imaging, that relies on intensity measurements and not phases.

The coherent interferometric approach discussed in this talk addresses the second case and it can be viewed as a statistically smoothed migration technique that exploits systematically the spatial and
temporal coherence in the data to obtain reliable images.

I will describe in some detail the method, its statistical stability and resolution. In particular, I will explainhow the suppression of the clutter noise in the data requires a certain type of smoothing
that leads to loss in resolution. This can be quantified explicitly in terms of the statistics of the clutter
and the optimal amount of smoothing can be determined adaptively, during the image formation
process.

Finally, I will describe some recent results on the question of optimal waveform design for imaging with arrays, in both cluttered and smooth (deterministic) media.


Wednesday, October 11, 2006

South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM,
Refreshments served at 3:00 PM
Stephen LeRoy, UCSB Economics

"Compactifying the Payoff Space: Applications in Financial Economics."

Finance models with a finite number of states and dates have a number of properties that may or may not extend to their infinite counterparts. Whether they do depends how equilibrium is defined. Under sequential equilibrium many properties do not extend to infinite settings. We propose an alternative equilibrium concept that is closer to classical finite Walrasian equilibrium. This involves appending a date called \uffff~H~^ to the finite dates and defining a topology such that the payoff index set so expanded is compact. Payoffs of infinite portfolio strategies are defined as limits of payoffs of finite portfoliostrategies. This setup allows a simplified mathematical treatment of a number of topics that are unwieldy when modeled in a setting where the payoff index set is not compact. Topics discussed include Ponzi schemes, payoff bubbles and the doubling strategy.


Wednesday, November 1, 2006
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM,
Refreshments served at 3:00 PM

John Hsu, UCSB Statistics and Applied Probability

BAYESIAN APPROACHES FOR ESTIMATING A COVARIANCE MATRIX

A flexible class of prior distributions for the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution will be discussed. Approximate and exact posterior moments for the parameters of interest can be calculated via a Metropolis-Hastings/MCMC algothrithm. A subset of the Project Talent
American High School data has been analyzed and will be reported.


Wednesday, November 8, 2006
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM,
Refreshments served at 3:00 PM
Peter Radchenko, University of Southern California

Mixed-Rates Asymptotics

A general method will be presented for deriving the limiting behavior of estimators that are defined as the values of parameters optimizing an empirical criterion function. The asymptotic behavior of such estimators is typically deduced from uniform limit theorems for rescaled and reparametrized criterion functions. The new method can handle cases where the standard approach does not yield the complete limiting behavior of the estimator. The asymptotic analysis depends on a decomposition of criterion functions into sums of components with different rescalings. The method will be explained by examples from shorth estimation, k-means clustering and partial linear models


Wednesday, November 15, 2006
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM,
Refreshments served at 3:00 PM

Jane-Ling Wang, UCDavis Department of Statistics

Semiparametric Analysis of Functional Data Truncated by Event-time

In this talk, we explore issues to analyze functional data (often termed longitudinal data when it is sparse) which arise in medical studies. These functional/longitudinal data serve as biomarkers for disease progression and are often not observable after an event, such as death, occurs. This triggers informative dropout. Since the functional/longitudinal data are related to the event-time, marginal approaches to model the functional/longitudinal processes will induce bias, and one way to remove the bias is to model both the event and longitudinal processes simultaneously. Such an approach is termed joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data in the literature.

We will explore several intriguing and challenging issues in joint modeling. Typically, a parametric longitudinal model is assumed to facilitate the likelihood approach. However, the choice of a proper parametric model turns out more illusive than in standard longitudinal modeling where no survival end-point is considered. Furthermore, the computational burden and stability are important concerns in the joint modeling setting. To deal with these challenges, we propose a simple semiparametric random effects model for the functional/longitudinal data and illustrate this through numerical studies and data analysis. Another challenge in the joint modeling approach is the high dimensionality problem involved in the EM-algorithm. We will show how the method of sieves helps to resolve this difficulty and discuss the asymptotic properties of the proposed sieve estimators.


Wednesday, November 29, 2006
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM

Li Qin, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington

Assessing Surrogate Endpoints in Vaccine Trials with Case-Cohort Sampling and the Cox Model

Assessing immune responses to study vaccines as surrogates of protection (SoPs) plays a central role in vaccine clinical trials. We consider such surrogate endpoint assessment in a randomized placebo-controlled trial with case-cohort sampling of immune responses and a time to event endpoint. We extend the principal surrogate definition under the principal strata framework proposed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002) and Gilbert and Hudgens (2006), and introduce causal estimands that measure the value of an immune
response as a SoP in the context of the Cox proportional hazards model. Often in vaccine trials the principal strata for potential surrogates can be effectively reduced to a single stratum factor defined by the immune response to the vaccine. This formulation transfers the assessment of a SoP into the estimation of Cox model parameters with missing covariates. Because the vaccine induced immune response is not measured in placebo recipients, the evaluation of a SoP is challenging. We thus describe efficient
designs for feasible estimation of the causal effects. The first design utilizes information from baseline predictors of the immune response, and bridges their relationship in the vaccine recipients to the placebo recipients. The second design provides a validation set for the unmeasured immune responses of uninfected placebo recipients by immunizing them with the study vaccine after trial closeout. A maximum estimated likelihood approach is proposed for estimation. Simulated data examples are given to evaluate the proposed designs and study their properties.

This is joint work with Peter Gilbert, Dean Follmann and Dongfeng Li.



Wednesday, December 6, 2006
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM

Nikolaos Zygouras, University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics

Abstract


Friday, Jan 12, 2007
3:15 pm, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM
South Hall 5607F

Alexander Schied, Berlin University of Technology

Aspects of model uncertainty and robustness in finance and economics

Due to the complexity of financial price processes, their mathematical models are often subject to model misspecification. In this talk we present some recent results on the robustness of certain trading strategies with respect to model uncertainty. In the first part, we consider the robustness of the Delta hedging strategy of an exotic derivative with respect to realized volatility when the underlying model is a local volatility model. Our analysis is based on volatility comparison techniques for SDEs. In the second part, we focus on the construction of optimal investment strategies for an investor who is averse against both risk and model uncertainty. Here one can use or combine several techniques including convex duality, nonlinear PDEs, and robust statistical test theory. In some special cases, the problems considered in parts one and two are closely related to each other.


Wednesday, February 21, 2007
3:15 PM (Refreshments at 3:00 PM)
South Hall 5607F

Kenneth C. Millett, Department of Mathematics
University of California, Santa Barbara

How many knots are enough?

This question addresses the problem of estimating the number of distinct topological knot types and their proportion in the space of (equilateral) polygonal knots with a fixed number of edges. For very small numbers of edges, one knows the number of knot types and can estimate their proportion but, for largernumbers of edges, only rough estimates are available. Estimates derive from Monte Carlo explorations of the (equilateral) polygonal knot space and an analysis using the HOMFLY polynomial as a surrogate for the topological knot type. As a consequence, one is interested in knowing how large a sample of knots is needed to give a good estimate of the number of topological knot types as reflected by distinct HOMFLY polynomials. Some theoretical and experimental efforts concerning this question will be discussed.


Feb 28, 2007
3:15 PM (Refreshments at 3:00 PM)
South Hall 5607F
Guillaume Bonnet, Statistics and Applied Probability, UCSB


March 14, 2007
3:15 PM (Refreshments at 3:00 PM)
South Hall 5607F

Andrew Carter



Wednesday, April 4, 2007
3:15 PM, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM
South Hall 5607F (Sobel)

Huiju Zhang, The Robert H. Smith School of Business University of Maryland, College Park

Applying Model Reference Adaptive Search to American-style Option Pricing Abstract

This paper considers the application of stochastic optimization methods to American-style option
pricing. We apply a randomized optimization algorithm called Model Reference Adaptive Search
(MRAS) to pricing American-style options through parameterizing the early exercise boundary.
Numerical results are provided for pricing American-style call and put options written on
underlying assets following geometric Brownian motion and Merton jump-diffusion processes. Wealso price American-style Asian options written on underlying assets following geometric Brownian
motion. The results from the MRAS algorithm are compared with the cross-entropy (CE) method, and
MRAS is found to be an efficient method.


Wednesday, April 25, 2007
3:15 PM, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM
South Hall 5607F (Sobel)

Dr. Bruno Dupire, Bloomberg and NYU

Applications of the Root Solution of the Skorohod Embedding Problem in Finance

The Skorokhod embedding problem amounts to stopping a Brownian motion to hit a target density; it has interesting implications for finance:
a) any solution leads to a model that is calibrated to the option prices of a given maturity and
b) it provides a rule to sell a (martingale) asset in order to achieve a prescribed wealth distribution. We concentrate on the Root Solution (hitting time of a barrier), which provides a canonical mapping of a density into a stopping region. We examine 1) the implications in terms of options on realized variance
2) new Monte Carlo schemes which confine the increments in both space and time at each time step

Slides


Thursday, April 26, 2007

Dr. Bruno Dupire, Bloomberg and NYU

Regents Lecture, Corwin Pavilion
4:00 PM, Reception following the lecture

An Idiot's Guide to Option Pricing
Option pricing puzzles the intuition; for instance the fair price of an option that pays when the market goes up does not depend on the probability the market goes up! We present and illustrate the main principles of option pricing, such as uncertainty modeling, arbitrage, completeness, risk neutrality, hedging, dominance, forward quantities, numerical methods,... .

We make liberal use of toy examples to illustrate main concepts and paradoxes..
SLIDES PHOTOS POSTER


May 23, 2007 - SOBEL LECTURE
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM


Dr. Scott Zeger, Frank Hurley and Catharine Dorrier Professor in Biostatistics and Chair, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Micronutrient Supplementation, Birth Weight and Infant Mortality; On Estimation of Percentile-Specific, Mediated Intervention Effects

In developing countries, higher infant mortality is partially caused by poor maternal and fetal nutrition. Randomized community trials of micronutrient supplementation are aimed at reducing the risk of infant mortality by increasing birth weight. Because infant mortality is greatest among the low birth weight infants (LBW) (<2500 grams), an effective intervention must increase the birth weight among the smallest babies.


Although it has been demonstrated that supplementation increases the birth weight in a trial conducted in Nepal, there is inconclusive evidence that the supplementation improves survival. It has been hypothesized that a potential benefit of the treatment on survival among the LBW is partly compensated by a null or even harmful effects among the largest infants.

Thus, two key scientific questions are whether the effect of the treatment on survival varies across the birth weight distribution and whether the effect of the treatment on survival is mediated wholly or in part by increases in birthweight.

This talk will define and estimate population- and subject-specific parameters that describe the treatment effects on birth weight and on survival as functions of the percentiles of the birth weight distribution. Sensitivity of some subject-specific inferences to unverifiable assumptions will be demonstrated.


May 30, 2007
South Hall 5607F
3:15 PM, Refreshments served at 3:00 PM

Sanjib Basu, Northern Illinois University

Bayesian competing risks analysis of cancer survival data from the SEER program

The rates of cancers, including age-adjusted mortality and incidence rates, depict a general increase over the last 30 years. These led some to question the success of the war on cancer. The rates of many other competing diseases, on the other hand, have declined. It has been hypothesized that this decline is somewhat responsible for the rise in cancer rates. We consider competing risks analysis of cancer survival data that considers the simultaneous risks of cancer as well as other causes. The cure rate survival models for cancer postulates a fraction of the patients to be cured from cancer. We propose a model that incorporates competing risks and, at the same time, allows a fraction of patients to be cured. We describe Bayesian analysis of this model, discuss both conceptual and methodological issues related to model building and model selection, and consider application in survival data for breast and prostate cancer patients in the SEER registries of the National Cancer Institute (NCI).


June 4 , 2007 (Monday)
South Hall 5607F
11:00 AM, Refreshments served at 10:45 AM

Ram Tiwari

"NCI’s Biostatistics Grant Portfolio and NIH Funding Mechanism”

The talk consists of two parts. In Part I, I will talk about our website: www.statfund.cancer.gov. This website contains information about a large proportion of the NIH funded grants in biostatistical methods in areas of application to cancer epidemiology, treatment, survival and prevention. These grants are housed in the Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences (DCCPS) at the National Cancer Institute (NCI). I will also discuss various funding opportunities in statistics at the NCI. In Part II, I will go over the NIH funding mechanisms and discuss the NIH grant review process in great detail.

 
 
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Statistics & Applied Probability
University of California
Santa Barbara, California 93106-3110
(805) 893-2129
South Hall 5607A