This story that I picked up on slashdot says that the Centers for Disease Control have partnered with GE Healthcare to receive data on 14 million patients in their network. (Of course, I cannot actually find an announcement from the CDC about this.) The data will be collected on a daily basis and provide information on flu prevalence and spread. To see the current information the CDC uses for flu surveillance go here and for the most recent flu activity go here.  Compared to previous CDC surveillance, this method has the advantage of a huge database with timely responses. Of course, samples will still need to be analyzed to classify flu as seasonal or H1N1 (or other variants) which will add some delay in knowing which flu is active and when. My hope is that the CDC allows easier access to the data. I understand we will not receive the medical records for individuals, but some summary statistics on a reasonable spatial/time scale would be helpful.

The other day, I criticized a graphic describing swine flu deaths in terms of its relevance to me. The figure below provides the estimates of the marginal probability of dying from different causes including H1N1 (swine flu). Of course, I will still complain and say, I’d prefer to see a figure that is conditional on my being a U.S. resident. Still this figure provides exactly the type of perspective that is needed concerning the impact swine flu is currently having on the world.

With that being said, I believe public health officials are mainly worried about the possibility of H1N1 mutating into something that is much more contagious, or more importantly more deadly. If this happens soon, the world will still not have enough immunity (either through having been infected already or a vaccine) and the deaths could be catastrophic.

[This image is no longer available. That's what I get for linking to the image rather than downloading it and linking to my own version.]